基于灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度的江淮分水嶺地區(qū)小麥赤霉病氣象等級(jí)預(yù)報(bào)

doi:10.12306/2022jms.0079

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2025年第45卷第2期 >196-204. DOI:10.12306/2022jms.0079

基于灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度的江淮分水嶺地區(qū)小麥赤霉病氣象等級(jí)預(yù)報(bào)
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                        10.12306/2022jms.0079
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):S435.121;S165
基金項(xiàng)目:安徽省氣象局研究型業(yè)務(wù)科技攻關(guān)資助項(xiàng)目(YTG202103)

Construction and application of meteorological grade forecast model of winter wheat scab occurrence in Anhui Province over Jianghuai watershed area based on grey correlation degree

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利用2010—2020年江淮分水嶺地區(qū)15個(gè)站點(diǎn)的冬小麥赤霉病病穗率觀測資料以及各站點(diǎn)抽穗揚(yáng)花期逐日氣象觀測資料,采用相關(guān)性分析、灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度法和百分位法等,系統(tǒng)構(gòu)建了基于灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度的冬小麥赤霉病綜合影響指數(shù)模型和等級(jí)指標(biāo),同時(shí)分析了冬小麥赤霉病發(fā)生的時(shí)空變化規(guī)律。結(jié)果表明:(1)赤霉病發(fā)生發(fā)展與冬小麥抽穗揚(yáng)花期平均氣溫、累計(jì)雨日和平均相對(duì)濕度有關(guān),其灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度值分別為0.356、0.327、0.317。(2)依據(jù)3個(gè)氣象影響因子關(guān)聯(lián)度值構(gòu)建的綜合影響指數(shù)模型,可以較好地反映江淮分水嶺地區(qū)冬小麥赤霉病的歷年發(fā)生情況。(3)采用2021、2022年獨(dú)立數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)模型進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證,模型的模擬值與實(shí)測值吻合度＞67%,明顯優(yōu)于逐步回歸模型,模型具有較高的業(yè)務(wù)應(yīng)用價(jià)值。(4)2010年以來江淮分水嶺地區(qū)各站點(diǎn)冬小麥赤霉病綜合影響指數(shù)呈現(xiàn)波動(dòng)式增加趨勢,氣候傾向率為2.1/(10 a),空間上總體呈現(xiàn)西南高東北低的特點(diǎn),平均綜合影響指數(shù)為31.14~33.85,各站點(diǎn)冬小麥赤霉病平均為輕發(fā)生至偏輕發(fā)生。研究結(jié)果對(duì)江淮分水嶺地區(qū)冬小麥赤霉病預(yù)測評(píng)估和綜合防控具有一定參考價(jià)值。

Abstract:

By using the observation data of winter wheat scab rate from 15 sites in Jianghuai watershed area from 2010 to 2020, and the daily meteorological observation data of the heading and flowering period of each site, the comprehensive impacting index model and grade index of winter wheat head blight based on grey correlation degree were systematically constructed, and the temporal and spatial changes of winter wheat scab were analyzed with the statistical methods such as synthetic analysis, grey correlation, and percentile method, etc. Results show that:(1)average relative humidity, average temperature and accumulated rainy days were the key meteorological factors affecting the occurrence of winter wheat scab, and the gray correlation values was 0.356, 0.327, 0.317, respectively.(2)The comprehensive impacting index constructed on this basis can well reflect the occurrence of winter wheat scab in the Jianghuai watershed area.(3)The model is verified by independent data in 2021 and 2022, and the predicted value of the model constructed by the comprehensive impact index was in agreement with the measured value by more than 67%, and the model has high application value. (4)Since 2010, the comprehensive impact index of winter wheat scab at each site in the Jianghuai watershed area has shown a fluctuating trend, with a climate tendency rate of 2.1/(10 a), and the overall spatial characteristics were high in the southwest and low in the northeast. The average comprehensive impact index is 31.14-33.85. The average occurrence of wheat head blight in each site was mild to mild. The results of this study have guiding significance for the prediction, evaluation and comprehensive prevention and control of winter wheat scab in the Jianghuai watershed area.

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謝金花,尚秉琛,岳偉,李威,王學(xué)林.基于灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度的江淮分水嶺地區(qū)小麥赤霉病氣象等級(jí)預(yù)報(bào).氣象科學(xué),2025,45(2):196-204 XIE Jinhua, SHANG Bingchen, YUE Wei, LI Wei, WANG Xuelin. Construction and application of meteorological grade forecast model of winter wheat scab occurrence in Anhui Province over Jianghuai watershed area based on grey correlation degree. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(2):196-204

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收稿日期:2022-06-08
最后修改日期:2023-08-25
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2025-07-03
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