2024/2025年冬季中國主要天氣氣候事件特征

doi:10.12306/2025jms.0011

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2024/2025年冬季中國主要天氣氣候事件特征
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                        10.12306/2025jms.0011
                    
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中圖分類號:P466
基金項(xiàng)目:中國氣象局氣候變化專題資助項(xiàng)目(QBZ202408);中國氣象局創(chuàng)新發(fā)展專項(xiàng)(CXFZ2024J037);國家電網(wǎng)有限公司科技項(xiàng)目(1400-202357631A-3-2-ZN)

Characteristics of the major weather and climate events in China during the winter of 2024/2025

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2024/2025年冬季,我國氣候總體呈"暖干"特點(diǎn)。全國平均氣溫較常年同期偏高0.4℃,階段性起伏大,降水量較常年同期偏少41.8%,為1961年以來歷史同期第三少,華北、華東、華南等地均明顯偏少。主要天氣氣候事件包括:有10次冷空氣過程影響我國,發(fā)生次數(shù)接近常年同期。1月25—28日的全國型寒潮過程影響范圍廣、降溫幅度大、綜合強(qiáng)度為2000年以來1月第四強(qiáng),寒潮導(dǎo)致部分省份遭受雪災(zāi)或低溫冷凍害。干旱主要集中于華南、長江中下游地區(qū)、西南地區(qū)等地,廣西干旱日數(shù)為1961年以來同期最多。前冬,氣象干旱發(fā)展迅速,1月中旬干旱影響范圍最大,之后,長江中下游地區(qū)氣象干旱有所緩和,華南中東部及云南西南部、江蘇等地干旱持續(xù)。初步分析表明,1月下旬寒潮主要與中高緯環(huán)流場存在明顯的經(jīng)向性調(diào)整有關(guān),我國北方和中東部大部為位勢高度負(fù)距平,有利于槽后冷空氣南下。華南、長江中下游、云南等地的干旱可能與冬季北極濤動(dòng)(AO)呈現(xiàn)負(fù)位相有關(guān),東亞冬季冷空氣活動(dòng)路徑偏東,到達(dá)上述地區(qū)的冷空氣偏弱,氣溫相對偏高,加之受西風(fēng)氣流控制,不利于水汽輸送,冷暖空氣難以在該區(qū)域交匯,不利于產(chǎn)生降水。

Abstract:

In the winter of 2024/2025, China's climate is generally characterized by warm and dry conditions. The national average temperature was 0.4 ℃ higher than the normal of the same period. The periodic fluctuations were large. The precipitation was 41.8% less than the normal of the same period and the third lowest in the same period of history since 1961. Particular in North China, East China and South China, the seasonal precipitation were significantly less than normal. The major weather and climate events include: there are 10 cold air processes affecting China, which is close to the normal of the same period. Among then, the nationwide cold wave from January 25 to 28 had extensive impacts,caused sharp temperature drops, and ranked as the fourth strongest in January since 2000. It triggered snow disasters or low temperature freezing damage in some places of several provinces. The drought mainly concentrated in South China, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, Southwest China and other places. Guangxi experienced its most number of drought days for the same period since 1961. In early winter, the meteorological drought developed rapidly, peaking in mid-January with the widest affected area. After that, the meteorological drought eased in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, and persisted in central and eastern South China, southwest Yunnan and Jiangsu. The preliminary analysis shows that the late-January cold wave is mainly related to the obvious meridional adjustment of the circulation field in the middle and high latitudes, with negative geopotential height anomalies over northern and central-eastern China, which is conducive to the southward movement of cold air behind the trough. The droughts in South China, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, Yunnan may be associated with the negative phase of the Arctic oscillation (AO) in winter, which shifted the East Asia winter cold air path eastward. Weaker cold air reaching these regions led to relatively higher temperature. Additionally westerly airflow dominance hindered moisture transport, preventing the convergence of cold and warm air and thus suppressing precipitation.

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代潭龍,周星妍,呂卓卓,王雅琦,高歌,翟建青.2024/2025年冬季中國主要天氣氣候事件特征.氣象科學(xué),2025,45(2):299-308 DAI Tanlong, ZHOU Xingyan, Lü Zhuozhuo, WANG Yaqi, GAO Ge, ZHAI Jianqing. Characteristics of the major weather and climate events in China during the winter of 2024/2025. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(2):299-308

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收稿日期:2025-03-21
最后修改日期:2025-04-14
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2025-07-03
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