南京極端小時降水特征統(tǒng)計及基于環(huán)境的判別方法研究

doi:10.12306/2023jms.0038

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南京極端小時降水特征統(tǒng)計及基于環(huán)境的判別方法研究
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                        10.12306/2023jms.0038
                    
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中圖分類號:P426.6
基金項目:中國氣象局創(chuàng)新發(fā)展專項(CXFZ2024J007);中國氣象局水文氣象重點開放實驗室開放研究課題(23SWQXM008);南京氣象科技創(chuàng)新研究院北極閣基金資助項目(BJG202510);江蘇省氣象局面上資助項目(KM202515);江蘇省氣象局面上資助項目(KM202207);江蘇省氣象局青年基金資助項目(KQ202315)

Characteristics of extreme hourly precipitation in Nanjing and environment-based discrimination method

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利用1991—2021年常規(guī)觀測小時降水數據和再分析格點資料,對南京極端小時降水的氣候特征、環(huán)流背景、環(huán)境條件、預報閾值進行討論。結果表明:(1)近30 a極端小時降水發(fā)生頻次呈上升趨勢,集中發(fā)生在6—8月,日變化呈"雙峰雙谷"特征,7—8月主要發(fā)生在下午至傍晚,而6月中旬易發(fā)生在上午;南京中北部比南部更頻發(fā),且中北部高發(fā)于下午至傍晚,南部高發(fā)于上午。(2)極端小時降水可分為北槽南下型、西風帶淺槽型、高空槽前或南支槽型、北側冷渦型、冷渦后西北風型、南北高壓型、臺風影響型7類,不同天氣背景下環(huán)境參數特征差異較大。本文綜合天氣概念模型和環(huán)境參數特征,建立了南京地區(qū)極端小時降水判別方法,為南京強降水預報預警提供參考。

Abstract:

A discrimination method for extreme hourly precipitation forecasts in Nanjing based on the circulation background and environmental parameters is developed in this paper by statistically analyzing the climatic characteristics, synoptic patterns, environmental conditions, and forecast thresholds using hourly observed precipitation data and ERA5 reanalysis gridded datasets for the past 30 years. The results suggest that extreme hourly precipitation frequency has increased over the past 30 years, with a concentration around June to August. The daily variation exhibits a "double peak and double valley" feature, with summertime afternoon to evening occurrences predominating and rising morning occurrences in the other months. Precipitation in south Nanjing is more likely to be augmented in the morning as opposed to north-central Nanjing, where it happens more frequently and tends to occur in the late afternoon and evening. Extreme hourly precipitation can be subjectively categorized into seven synoptic patterns: northwest trough type, westerly short-wave trough type, plateau trough or south branch trough type, north cold vortex with southwest airflow type, northeast cold vortex with northwest airflow type, between mid-latitude and subtropical highs type, typhoon type. In various meteorological situations, environmental parameters have features that change substantially. The weather conceptual model and environmental parameter characteristics are integrated to establish the extreme hourly precipitation discrimination method in Nanjing, which provides support for the heavy precipitation short-time forecast and nowcasting in Nanjing.

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顏海帆,戴竹君,劉梅,曹玥瑤,孫軼.南京極端小時降水特征統(tǒng)計及基于環(huán)境的判別方法研究.氣象科學,2025,45(3):341-351 YAN Haifan, DAI Zhujun, LIU Mei, CAO Yueyao, SUN Yi. Characteristics of extreme hourly precipitation in Nanjing and environment-based discrimination method. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(3):341-351

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收稿日期:2023-03-06
最后修改日期:2023-05-04
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2025-08-30
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