滇中地區(qū)6—10月短時強降水環(huán)境參數(shù)特征及天氣學(xué)概念模型

doi:10.12306/2023jms.0029

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2025年第45卷第3期 >352-366. DOI:10.12306/2023jms.0029

滇中地區(qū)6—10月短時強降水環(huán)境參數(shù)特征及天氣學(xué)概念模型
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                        10.12306/2023jms.0029
                    
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中圖分類號:P468.024
基金項目:云南省重點研發(fā)計劃—社會發(fā)展專項(202203AC100005);云南省氣象局創(chuàng)新團隊資助項目(2022CX07)

Environmental parameter characteristics and synoptic conceptual model of short-time heavy rainfall in Central Yunnan from June to October

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利用2000—2021年滇中地區(qū)國家觀測站逐小時降水資料和NCEP 1°×1°再分析資料,分析了滇中地區(qū)短時強降水過程的主要影響天氣系統(tǒng)及關(guān)鍵物理量特征。結(jié)果表明:滇中短時強降水過程主要發(fā)生在6—10月,尤其主汛期6—8月為短時強降水過程高發(fā)期。根據(jù)篩選條件共挑選出99次短時強降水過程前272個臨近時刻,建立了3類滇中地區(qū)6—10月短時強降水概念模型:副熱帶高壓底部東北氣流型、兩高輻合型、高壓脊型。700 hPa切變線是短時強降水的關(guān)鍵系統(tǒng),3種天氣流型在不同月份具有不同的比例,并且各站點出現(xiàn)頻次和日變化具有各自特征。從能量條件、層結(jié)條件、水汽條件和動力條件4個方面分析了3種天氣流型關(guān)鍵物理量參數(shù)特征,滇中地區(qū)的能量條件與中國其它地區(qū)相比具有明顯差異;整層大氣水汽條件顯著低于中國其它地區(qū),但中低層水汽條件較好;不穩(wěn)定層結(jié)條件統(tǒng)計結(jié)果大體上與中國大部分地區(qū)接近,但與少數(shù)地區(qū)存在差異;動力條件方面,大氣低層和中層均具有一定上升條件,雖然數(shù)值不是很大,并具有適中的SWEAT值和弱的垂直風(fēng)切變,在實際預(yù)報業(yè)務(wù)中可以作為參考。

Abstract:

Based on the hourly precipitation data of National observation stations in central Yunnan from 2000 to 2021 and the NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data, the main weather systems and key physical characteristics of short-time heavy precipitation process are analyzed. The results show that the monthly accumulative times of short-time heavy precipitation processes in central Yunnan are single peak type, especially the high-frequency period of short-time heavy precipitation processes are from June to August. The short-time heavy precipitation processes mainly occur from June to October. According to the screening conditions, 272 near moments of 99 short-time heavy precipitation processes are selected and three conceptual models of short-time heavy precipitation in central Yunnan from June to October are established: type of northeast flow at the bottom of the subtropical high, type of convergence between two high pressures and type of high pressure ridges. The shear line of 700 hPa are the key systems of short-time heavy precipitation. The three weather flow patterns have different proportions in different months, and the occurrence frequency and diurnal variation of each station have their own characteristics. The characteristics of the key physical parameters of the three weather flow patterns are analyzed from the four aspects which are energy condition, stratification condition, water vapor condition and dynamic condition.The energy conditions in central Yunnan are obviously different from those in other parts of China. The water vapor condition in the whole layer is significantly lower than that in other areas of China, but the water vapor condition in the middle and lower layers is better.The statistical results of unstable stratification conditions are close to most areas of China, but different from a few areas.In terms of dynamic conditions, both the lower and middle layers of the atmosphere have certain rising conditions, although the values are not very large,with moderate SWEAT and low vertical wind shear,which can be used as a reference in the practical forecast business.

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周泓,韓敏,周曉宇,陸雯茜,許彥艷.滇中地區(qū)6—10月短時強降水環(huán)境參數(shù)特征及天氣學(xué)概念模型.氣象科學(xué),2025,45(3):352-366 ZHOU Hong, HAN Min, ZHOU Xiaoyu, LU Wenxi, XU Yanyan. Environmental parameter characteristics and synoptic conceptual model of short-time heavy rainfall in Central Yunnan from June to October. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(3):352-366

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收稿日期:2023-02-15
最后修改日期:2023-05-06
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2025-08-30
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