江西省浙贛鐵路沿線汛期極端降水特征分析

doi:10.12306/2023jms.0047

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江西省浙贛鐵路沿線汛期極端降水特征分析
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                        10.12306/2023jms.0047
                    
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中圖分類號:P456.7
基金項目:2022年江西省氣象局災(zāi)害風(fēng)險普查項目(JX2022ZHFXPC11)。

Characteristics of extreme precipitation during the flood season along the Zhejiang-Jiangxi railway in Jiangxi Province

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基于1961—2019年江西省浙贛鐵路沿線汛期日值降水資料,分析了極端降水的時空變化特征。發(fā)現(xiàn)其主要呈現(xiàn)西段向東段逐漸增加的空間分布形勢,且線路東段站點(diǎn)的極端降水指數(shù)增加趨勢大于西段。由時間序列來看,除連續(xù)有雨日數(shù)外其余指數(shù)均表現(xiàn)為不顯著的增加趨勢,且所有指數(shù)均呈現(xiàn)為一定的年代際波動。根據(jù)統(tǒng)計分析,2010年浙贛鐵路沿線極端降水較強(qiáng),多個指數(shù)在該年出現(xiàn)極值。根據(jù)MK檢驗和滑動t檢驗進(jìn)一步分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)除連續(xù)有雨日數(shù)于1989年前后產(chǎn)生突變外,其余指數(shù)均未檢測出突變。通過EOF和REOF分析,浙贛鐵路沿線汛期極端降水指數(shù)主要表現(xiàn)為三型:東段型、西段型和中段型,并可將沿線站點(diǎn)分為三區(qū)。初步探討表明極端降水與ENSO有一定的相關(guān)關(guān)系。

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Based on the daily precipitation data during the flood season along the Zhejiang-Jiangxi railway in Jiangxi province from 1961 to 2019, the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of extreme precipitation were analyzed. It mainly presents a spatial distribution pattern that the extreme precipitation gradually increases from the west section to the eastern part, and increase faster at the east section. From the perspective of time series, except for CWD the other extreme precipitation indexes showed an insignificant increasing trend, and all indexes showed a certain decadal fluctuation. According to statistical analysis, the extreme precipitation along Zhejiang-Jiangxi railway was stronger in 2010, and several indexes appeared extreme values in this year. Furthermore, through M-K nonparametric test and sliding t test, it was found that except for the abrupt change of CWD around 1989, no abrupt change was detected in the other extreme precipitation indices. Finally, by means of EOF and REOF analysis reveals that the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation index of flood season along Zhejiang-Jiangxi railway can be divided into three objective partitions: the eastern part of the Zhejiang-Jiangxi railway, western part and middle part of the Zhejiang-Jiangxi railway. The preliminary study shows that there is a certain correlation between extreme precipitation and ENSO.

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曹瑜,凌婷,陶昕宇.江西省浙贛鐵路沿線汛期極端降水特征分析.氣象科學(xué),2025,45(3):401-409 CAO Yu, LING Ting, TAO Xinyu. Characteristics of extreme precipitation during the flood season along the Zhejiang-Jiangxi railway in Jiangxi Province. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(3):401-409

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收稿日期:2023-02-16
最后修改日期:2023-05-30
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2025-08-30
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