基于CMA-GFS4.0模式西南低渦暴雨過程偏差特征分析

doi:10.12306/2024jms.0049

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基于CMA-GFS4.0模式西南低渦暴雨過程偏差特征分析
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                        10.12306/2024jms.0049
                    
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中圖分類號:P457.6
基金項目:四川省科學技術(shù)廳重點研發(fā)項目(2024YFFK0407)；中國氣象局氣象能力提升聯(lián)合研究專項(22NLTSZ006)；高原與盆地暴雨旱澇災害四川省重點實驗室科技發(fā)展基金(SCQXKJYJXMS202312;SCQXKJYJXZD2403)

Analysis on deviation characteristics of southwest vortex rainstorm process based on CMA-GFS4.0 model

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中國氣象局全球數(shù)值預報系統(tǒng)(CMA-GFS)于2023年5月升級到v4.0，為了評估CMA-GFS升級前后對四川西南低渦暴雨過程的預報能力及升級后偏差特征，本文選取2022年和2023年該類過程對CMA-GFS、區(qū)域數(shù)值預報系統(tǒng)(CMA-MESO)和歐洲天氣預報系統(tǒng)(ECMWF)進行對比檢驗及典型個例診斷分析。對比檢驗指出：CMA-GFS模式大暴雨量級漏報明顯；暴雨量級評分2022年顯著高于ECMWF和CMA-MESO，2023年評分下降且略低于ECMWF。針對2023年7月26—28日典型西南低渦暴雨個例，從環(huán)流形勢、低渦系統(tǒng)等多維度對CMA-GFS進行評估診斷，結(jié)果表明：CMA-GFS4.0模式預報主要影響系統(tǒng)位置及移動路徑和實況基本一致，降水落區(qū)基本正確，對低渦暴雨過程具有指示意義；風速尤其南風分量預報從初始場開始即顯著偏弱，導致低層雙低空急流漏報，與風速相聯(lián)系的動力作用預報偏弱是本次過程量級預報偏弱的主要因素；低層干偏差造成低層能量和層結(jié)不穩(wěn)定條件預報偏弱，導致對流強度偏弱且持續(xù)時間短；西南低渦前期各項偏差相對明顯，低渦強盛期偏差開始減小甚至出現(xiàn)正負轉(zhuǎn)變趨勢。

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The China Meteorological Administration Global Forecast System (CMA-GFS) has been upgraded to version 4.0 in May 2023. To evaluate the forecast capability and bias characteristics of CMA-GFS before and after the upgrade， this study compares and analyzes the performances of CMA-GFS， the Regional Numerical Weather Prediction System (CMA-MESO)， and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in predicting southwest low vortex-induced heavy rainfall events in Sichuan in 2022 and 2023. The comparative evaluation shows that: the CMA-GFS model underestimates the extreme heavy rainfall event；with the rainfall scores in 2022 significantly higher than those of ECMWF and CMA-MESO; while in 2023， the scores decreased and were slightly lower than those of ECMWF. A multi-dimensional evaluation and diagnostic analysis of CMA-GFS was conducted for a typical southwest low vortex case from July 26-28， 2023， including the circulation pattern and low vortex system. The results indicate that: the position and movement of the main influencing system forecasted by the CMA-GFS 4.0 model are consistent with the observation， with accurate rainfall location prediction， offering useful guidance for the low vortex heavy rainfall events; the forecasted wind speed is significantly underestimated from the initial field， especially the component of southward wind， leading to an under forecast of the low-level jet stream， implying that the weak dynamic forecast associated with wind speed is a major factor for the underestimated rainfall intensity; the underestimation of low-level energy and instability conditions are related to the dry bias in the lower atmosphere， resulting in weaker convective intensity and shorter duration; Biases in the early stages of the southwest low vortex are relatively prominent， but the biases decrease and even reverse during the peak stage of the vortex.

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徐琳娜,安琳莉,康嵐,鄧夢雨.基于CMA-GFS4.0模式西南低渦暴雨過程偏差特征分析.氣象科學,2025,45(4):504-514 XU Linna, AN Linli, KANG Lan, DENG Mengyu. Analysis on deviation characteristics of southwest vortex rainstorm process based on CMA-GFS4.0 model. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(4):504-514

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收稿日期:2024-07-01
最后修改日期:2024-11-25
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2025-11-29
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